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April 27, 2023
The Euro is now trading around a one-year high versus the US Dollar. Since Thursday's market, Europe has experienced strong economic resilience, which is different from the banking system in the US, which is full of uncertainty. So this is what the ECB takes advantage of.
Europe's resilient economy helps currency trading to be more stable, including dealing with the contagion risks in the US Dollar. Europe's single currency can be ticked up a few points and is now at its highest level since April of last year or year on year.
On Wednesday, the Euro ticked up 0.05% to $1.10415. Meanwhile, the Dollar index shows unequal measures, and the Euro is heavily weighted. By contrast, several US strategic sectors also have the potential to receive a significant impact from this trade.
US Capital goods are said to have fallen more than expected in the latest data overnight. And the Fed also continued to slump so that it was wrangling over an extension to US Debt ceiling. US inflation also shows a stubborn disconnect between growth and keeping the pressure.
"The resilient euro zone economy alongside underlying inflation that is going up. The ECB also maintains their hawkish stance to support the Euro," said Kristina Clifton, senior currency strategies at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Meanwhile, some experts also say that the potential for the Fed to increase rates more than once is high, and this is an upside risk to the US Dollar in the coming months. Meanwhile, the initial strength against the US Dollar must be driven by US banking for a stable market.
Because the results of analysis by experts show that the Dollar retreated on Wednesday mainly because of the US slowdown in the core capital goods sector, the Dollar index fell more than expected last month, mainly when it measures the currency against six major rivals.
The steady decline experienced shows that the US Dollar trading activity pipeline is getting smaller. Business spending on equipment that uses US Dollars is also reduced in Europe. Thierry Wizman said this is a sign that US inflation is slowing down.
Thierry Wizman, a global FX and interest rate strategist at Macquarie, said that significant currencies that can drive the Dollar to a low level are a sign that the inflation experienced will be a decelerating cause and will bring more significant economies.
At the session this month, the Fed is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points, and this will be concluded on May 3, when the two-day meeting is taking place. Meanwhile, there is also the possibility of pausing its rate hike campaign if the market expects further rate hikes.
"Whatever slowdown that we will see in the US will come earlier because of the drop in the price of this currency. This will also be more intense and significant, at least in the initial phase," said Thierry Wizman.
On the other hand, looking at US business activity data and comparing it to the Eurozone is quite a significant comparison. Interest rates expected to appear and make the US Dollar look tough did not come due to fears and uncertainty from the Fed.
Investors are now entirely focused on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting the Fed will hold. An increase in interest rates of 25 bps has excellent potential to occur. But the Fed is hesitant because the ECB is also on the verge of raising interest rates.
The Euro is now at a level close to the one-year peak against the US Dollar. This is also because the ECB is taking advantage of the momentum of uncertainty from the Fed. It was stated that the Fed wants to raise interest rates by 25 bps, which is still uncertain.
Salma Team
Category News: Market News
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